Memory chips are going crazy. How long can this market last? Behind this is not just a market recovery in a simple sense, but also profound changes in the global supply chain that are being promoted.
Memory chip shortage status
Samsung executives recently issued warnings that the shortage of memory chips at the time was unprecedented, and that the shortage was serious enough to have an impact on the pricing of end products such as smartphones. Such a direct voice from the top of the industry has greatly strengthened the market's expectations for tight supply.
The shortage is not formed in a short period of time. It is caused by strict constraints on manufacturing capacity and the strong impact of artificial intelligence demand on downstream demand. The imbalance between the two directly leads to an increase in the price of goods in the spot market, which is quickly transmitted to the contract price. This change in fundamentals is the core logic of this round of stock price fluctuations.
Institutional bullish logic analysis
Morgan Stanley, a representative international investment bank, has significantly increased its expectations for future prices. Its predictions for the average price increase of the two main memory chips, DRAM and NAND, in 2026 are more than 60%. Such an adjustment is based on re-calculation of the supply and demand model.
The forecasts made by domestic institutions such as China National Finance Securities are more specific. They indicate that contract prices in the first quarter are likely to continue to rise by 30% to 40%. Such a quantified forecast provides investors with a clear reference coordinate, further consolidating the consensus bullish market expectations.
Market price surge data
Looking back on 2025, the price of memory chips has risen at a staggering rate. Judging from public industry data, the annual growth rate of mainstream specifications DDR4 memory chips has reached 1800%, and the growth rates of new generation DDR5 and NAND flash memory chips have also reached 500% and 300% respectively.
After the arrival of the New Year, the price increase has not stopped. Most of the market believes that the global memory chip market will remain in short supply throughout 2026. Prices have been very strong, providing the most direct assistance to the performance improvement of related companies.
Market performance of industrial chain companies
In the A-share market, the first trading day of the new year got off to a good start. The stock prices of Yunhan Chip City, Longsys and other companies rose sharply. Some stocks even recorded a 20% increase and reached the daily limit. This shows that funds have a strong focus on the storage track.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, many companies related to it are showing an active trend. Among them, companies such as Shanghai Fudan and Huahong Semiconductor saw their stock prices rise significantly on January 5. Given that these companies occupy key positions in the entire semiconductor industry chain, their stock prices are extremely sensitive to changes in industry prosperity.
Domestic investment opportunities
The global supply chain structure has been adjusted and domestic technical capabilities have been improved. Under this situation, the domestic storage industry chain is ushering in a window period for development. Some institutions such as Aijian Securities have clearly stated in research reports that they should pay attention to investment-related opportunities for listed companies in the domestic storage industry chain.
Domestic substitution is not only a need arising from technological development, but also a requirement for supply chain security. Starting from design, to manufacturing, and then to packaging and testing, a relatively complete industrial chain cluster has been formed in China, which provides broad soil for the growth of related enterprises.
Hong Kong stock benchmark companies pay attention
In the Hong Kong stock market, selection activities such as the "Top 100 Hong Kong Stocks" have long focused on the semiconductor and technology fields. Memory chip concept stocks such as Shanghai Fudan and Huahong Semiconductor were once selected based on their solid financial status and market performance, and then became industry benchmarks.
At a time when the industry is at a high level of prosperity, the market is also observing which related companies can excel in the new round of selections. This is not only an honor, but also a reflection of the market's recognition of its comprehensive strength and long-term investment value.
For ordinary investors, faced with such a hot memory chip track situation, should they pursue the current market hot spots, or should they calmly analyze the hidden risks and cyclical fluctuation patterns? Welcome to share your opinions and insights in the comment area. If you think this article is helpful to you, don't forget to like and share it.
