A First Look At The 15th Five-Year Plan: Which Emerging Industries Will Become New Engines Of Local Development?

A new regional coordinated development track has begun, and various places are competing to deploy emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, hoping to use this to cultivate new economic momentum.

The selection logic of emerging industries

In terms of industrial layout, various regions do not blindly follow the trend, but rely on their own conditions to select. For example, Chongqing has a solid automobile industry foundation, so it has identified intelligent connected new energy vehicles as the primary industrial task during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. The key to this choice logic is to use emerging industries as a lever to leverage local advantageous industries to achieve transformation and upgrading, rather than creating a new industrial system without any basis.

For those areas that lack the foundation of traditional heavy industry but have advantages in data or energy, their choices are completely different. In the case of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other places, relying on sufficient green energy, they have made the choice to concentrate on developing computing power support and artificial intelligence application bases. This is actually a "resource conversion" strategy that transforms local energy advantages into infrastructure advantages required in the digital economy era, and then integrates into the national industrial chain.

Dual Paths to Technological Breakthroughs

As the foundation for emerging industries to gain a foothold, technological breakthroughs are currently mainly carried out along two paths, one is the "hard problem solving" path, and the other is the "soft ecological" path. The actions taken by Beijing represent a "hard attack" path. The goal of this path is to concentrate on overcoming key core technologies such as high-end chips and basic software that are prone to "stuck" situations. This path has the characteristics of large investment and long cycle, but it is crucial to building an independent and controllable industrial system.

The path taken by Zhejiang focuses on building a "soft ecology", which is to build the best open source and open environment in the world. Its goal is not to create all technologies from scratch, but to build a technology community and application environment that is fully open, shareable, and friendly, so as to attract developers and innovative resource components from all over the world, and then consolidate its leading position in algorithm models and application innovation. These two paths from different perspectives complement and achieve each other, and together they create a network state full of three-dimensional style that enables technological breakthroughs.

Core challenges of institutional innovation

The development of emerging industries is highly dependent on institutional innovation. There is a core challenge here, which is how to accurately find a balance between encouraging bold trial and error and preventing systemic risks. Some experts have given relevant suggestions, that is, to set up an "exemption list" for cutting-edge projects with strong exploratory nature, and to reward the teams that finally succeed in harvesting results. Such a "result-oriented" incentive mechanism can effectively eliminate the worries of innovators.

Another key point of institutional innovation is to break the constraints of the market. For example, horizontally connecting the carbon trading market with the green electricity trading market, so that the carbon emissions reduced by enterprises can be traded and realized like commodities. Inner Mongolia is currently improving the market-based trading mechanism of new energy, and Liaoning is exploring a "new energy+" integrated production and marketing model. The purpose of these many attempts is to use market-oriented methods and means, rather than relying solely on administrative orders, to stimulate the endogenous driving force of enterprises towards green transformation.

Necessary requirements for regional coordination

The development of emerging industries cannot be limited to a single city acting alone, and regional joint assistance has become an inevitable requirement. Experts from the China International Economic Exchange Center have suggested that the mobilization of computing power arrangements, data transmission and circulation, and model sharing should be promoted beyond the regional scope. This shows that it is necessary to build an efficient and low-cost data and computing power circulation network between the western provinces where there is a large concentration of computing resources and the eastern provinces where the demand for artificial intelligence applications is strong.

In addition to the mutual cooperation required in infrastructure, the mutual cooperation in industrial division of labor is also of critical significance. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a reminder to be wary of products such as humanoid robots, as they are being launched in droves across the country, resulting in low-level duplication of construction and vicious competition. This requires local governments to formulate plans. They must not only look at what they own, but also what other partners in the region are developing, and strive to create an industrial cluster with differentiated development and complementary advantages.

Industrial Coupling of Green Transformation

The advancement of new industries and the active promotion of green transformation are in a state of deep integration, thus shaping "green new productivity". Many regions have closely integrated technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data with new energy industries. For example, the establishment of "green computing centers" directly uses clean electricity such as wind power and photovoltaics to supply power to data centers. This not only reduces computing power costs, but also reduces carbon emissions and increases the "green content" of the regional economy.

The higher-order form of this coupling is to incubate a complete set of high-end equipment manufacturing and producer service industries supporting new energy. When a large base is established, it will not only produce green electricity, but also drive the development of a series of peripheral industries such as energy storage equipment, smart grids, and carbon management consulting services, thereby promoting the overall transformation of the regional economy from resource-dependent to technology-driven.

The test of balancing speed and quality

In fierce regional competition, how to balance development speed and industrial quality is a realistic test for local politicians. If we focus solely on the rapid expansion of the number of companies and the scale of investment, it will most likely lead to a waste of resources and inefficient competition. In the case of healthy industrial development, it needs to be carried out in accordance with market rules and technological evolution routes, and the industry must be given sufficient time for growth and trial and error.

The final test criterion for judging whether it is sustainable development depends on the ability of sustainable development. The sustainable development capability mentioned here is not only environmental sustainability, but more importantly, the industry's own viability and competitiveness in the market. For a successful industrial layout, it should have the ability to continuously contribute tax revenue to the local area, provide new job opportunities and bring innovation vitality in the next five to ten years, and be in a state that is truly integrated into the national and even global industrial division of labor system, and can even lead the development of this system.

For you, which emerging industry is most suitable for your city to combine with local traditional advantages to create unique competitiveness? You are welcome to share your observations in the comment area. If you feel that this article is inspiring, be sure to give it a like and support.