Apple's originally growing sales in the Chinese market have begun to slow down. However, in the Indian market, Apple has shown an amazing and powerful explosive force. The strategic shifts involved and the hidden challenges behind this are worthy of attention.
The market structure is quietly changing
, Apple showed in its fourth quarter 2025 financial report that its revenue in Greater China has declined year-on-year, which is a relatively rare situation in recent years. In sharp contrast, iPhone sales in the Indian market have achieved a rapid growth of more than 50%. This differentiation means that the focus of global smartphone consumption is dynamically adjusted, and Apple's global market strategy will inevitably change accordingly.
Cook's previous predictions about the Chinese market have been verified. At this moment, he has turned his attention to India, a country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, where the penetration rate of smartphones still has great room for improvement. If Apple intends to maintain its global growth curve, India has become an indispensable key battlefield, and its importance is rapidly increasing.
Unique challenges of the Indian market
India's per capita annual income is approximately US$1,500, which directly determines the characteristics of its consumer electronics market. About 70% of smartphones are sold for less than $150, and the high-end market accounts for a significantly small proportion of them. Because their prices are relatively affordable, older models such as the iPhone 5s have ranked first in sales in India. This fully reflects that price sensitivity is the first consideration for Indian consumers.
If Apple plans to expand its Indian user base on a large scale, it will have to face fierce competition from low-priced Android phones. In India, local brands and Chinese mobile phone manufacturers already occupy most of the market share. The traditional high-price strategy adopted by Apple needs to be flexibly adjusted here, so that launching a more price-competitive product line may become an inevitable choice.
Detailed calculation of growth potential
Some analysts predict that Apple has the possibility of adding 62 million iOS users in the Indian market. This calculation is based on a key assumption: Apple will increase its current low share of the Indian smartphone market to a similar proportion to the Chinese market. This is an extremely ambitious goal.
To achieve this goal, Apple must increase its market share in India from about 3% to 5%, which will bring about 10 million new users. If it wants to match the 58% smartphone penetration rate in the Chinese market, it will take longer and more comprehensive market cultivation. The potential for user growth is indeed huge.
Policy threshold for localized production
Cook, who recently visited India, has discussed with senior government officials about setting up retail stores and production lines there. However, the Indian government, which has clearly emphasized the "Made in India" plan, stipulates that a certain proportion of products in retail stores must be produced locally, which directly places requirements on Apple's supply chain layout.
Apple once had a plan to sell refurbished iPhones in India, but the proposal was rejected. The Indian government was worried about the impact it would have on the local manufacturing industry and the new phone market. This shows that Apple's expansion in India cannot be carried out by simply copying the experience of other markets, but must be deeply integrated into India's industrial policy framework.
Infrastructure construction is key
Analysts said that the conditions for Apple to achieve great success in India are that India's relevant infrastructure level can match China's. This includes stable power supply, complete 4G or 5G network coverage, efficient logistics systems and a wide range of electronic payment environments. These are the basis for the in-depth use of smartphones.
At present, only about 15% of India's population has the ability to purchase smartphones, while in China this proportion is more than half. The gap here is not only reflected in per capita income, but also in the entire socio-economic ecosystem that supports the popularization of smart devices. Apple's ecological prosperity is highly dependent on the maturity of these related peripheral conditions.
Apple’s response strategy and future
Apple has said it will respond to challenges by supplying more competitively priced products in the Indian market while ensuring quality. This may mean more models specifically designed for emerging markets, or more strategic pricing for older models. The progress of its partner Foxconn in setting up factories in India will also directly affect Apple's cost control and localization level.
For Apple, expanding into the Indian market is already a battle that requires a long-term response. The test of this process is not limited to product pricing. More importantly, it is the ability to deeply adapt to local policies, culture, and infrastructure. Apple’s determination to carry out this market expansion is clearly visible. However, whether it will ultimately be as successful as it is in the Chinese market, there are still many factors that are difficult to predict and change.
What do you consider to be the most critical factor for Apple's success in the Indian market? Is it to launch low-priced models, to implement localized production, or to wait for India's overall economy and infrastructure to improve? Share your views, likes and discussions are welcome.
